The World In A Week - A dreadful week for politics
Written by Shane Balkham.
Shinzo Abe, the former Japanese Prime Minister, was assassinated last week. He was shot twice while giving a campaign speech on Friday, in the run up to elections in Japan’s Upper House on Sunday. In the wake of the assassination, voter turnout was boosted and has given Fumio Kishida’s ruling coalition a landslide victory. The coalition won 93 of the 125 seats in the Upper House that were up for election, well above the two-thirds majority that is needed to revise the Japanese constitution.
However, the impact of Abe’s death will be significant for Japanese politics. Shinzo Abe was arguably the most influential leader that Japan has seen in decades, cleverly bringing people together. Although he stood down as Prime Minister due to health concerns, he still remained a dominant force in Japanese politics. The incident has naturally shocked Japan, where political violence has been rare and few people actually own firearms.
Less shocked were the population of the UK, which saw Boris Johnson quit as leader of the Conservative Party but confirmed he would be staying on as Prime Minister until a successor was elected. It has been a chaotic three years for Boris Johnson, which saw him steer the Conservative Party to its biggest victory in more than four decades at the 2019 general election, but ultimately it was his inability to tell the truth that has undermined his tenure.
We are now seeing a leadership contest to find the next Conservative Party leader and by default, the next Prime Minister. While Rishi Sunak has become the favourite amongst bookmakers, close allies of Boris Johnson are accusing the former Chancellor of being the catalyst of Johnson’s downfall. Loyalists of Boris Johnson will ensure they make the leadership contest as uncomfortable as possible for Sunak, despite his polished three-minute video extolling the virtues that he can bring to the UK as the next Prime Minister.
What the country needs is an honest, competent, and quick contest to find the next leader. However, there will be too many players in this race that will seek to gain an advantage any way they can. Let us hope it is a short race.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 11th July 2022.
© 2022 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - The Three “R” ‘s
Written by Richard Warne.
It was only six months ago when the S&P 500 in the US reached all-time highs, in a world where lingering supply chain pressures and potential COVID-19 outbreaks seemed to be the most pressing risks to equities. While those two risks have largely abated throughout the year, the refreshed slate of macro-overhangs may be more daunting than ever. From the heart-breaking war in Ukraine to unprecedented levels of inflation around the world, it is safe to say few could have imagined this is how 2022 would play out.
Rates, Recession and Refinance – the Three “R”’ ‘s. There is a lot to talk about within markets at large and credit in particular. We are now in an interesting part of the economic cycle, which we have not seen in almost 15 years. Rates and spreads (yields on corporate bonds are increasing) with both moving wider. Ultimately, this is now leading to much higher all-in financing rates for corporates, despite the fact there is not a massive wall of maturities (refinance risk) this year. As an example, if one priced today a typical “benchmark” high yield bond in Europe, the implied cost would be over 6.8%. However, at the start of 2022 the implied cost would have been closer to 2%, assuming one was pricing over the 5-year German government bond. Great in the medium term for bond investors, however higher all-in yields leads to a more difficult/expensive primary market, and we are seeing this play out now.
Russia is on the verge of defaulting on its external sovereign bonds for the first time in a century, the culmination of global sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. Because of the soaring price of energy, the Kremlin does have the means to pay its debt, just not the route, and any path forward remains uncertain.
In corporate news – Apple is planning an overhaul of some of its products which will set the stage for its next slate of devices and potentially an ambitious era for the Company. They include four iPhone 14 models, several Macs with M2 and M3 chips and the Company’s first mixed-reality headset, whatever that means!
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 4th July 2022.
© 2022 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - The Bear of Recession
Written by Ilaria Massei.
Last week’s focus was once again on Central Banks. Despite the Federal Reserve’s largest interest rate increase since 1994, the Fed’s Chair Jay Powell warned that a US recession is “certainly a possibility”. He argued that the US has been resilient to action a tougher monetary policy trying to avoid a downturn. However, this depends on factors that can no longer be controlled, such as rising commodity prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and further disruptions to supply chains.
The European Central Bank (ECB) warned the Eurozone that food prices will keep rising at near-record rates for at least another year. The Economic bulletin published by the ECB on the 23rd June stressed the fact that “already existing price pressures in the food sector have intensified following the Russian invasion of Ukraine”. One of the main points to be considered is that Russia exports more than a quarter of the fertiliser of the Eurozone’s consumption, however the Eurozone’s direct dependence on the region involved in the war is overall limited. Additionally, reduced supply from Russia and Ukraine can be compensated by greater supply from other countries. However, this solution could lead to higher prices and will likely increase inflation pressures in the upcoming months.
Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is sticking with its ultra-loose policy which consequently is weakening the yen against the dollar. However, the BoJ made it clear that its policy is not going to change, but it will pay attention in case of further developments. Russia is now at risk of default as the deadline for payment on Russia’s foreign debt has passed. Russia has reserves, thanks to oil exports, but many sanctions are excluding Russia from the global financial system, and this could possibly lead the country to default.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 27th June 2022.
© 2022 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - Data is driving the decisions
Written by Millan Chauhan.
Last week saw Boris Johnson win the vote of confidence from the Conservative MPs, claiming a 59% majority. Despite the majority, this was less than his predecessor Theresa May, who claimed a 63% margin before resigning months later amid the Brexit negotiations deadlock. Johnson’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and actions during national lockdowns has put into question his leadership, all of which instigated the vote of confidence last Monday.
Elsewhere, global markets continue to price in new releases of economic data with the US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8.6% at the end of May 2022. Core CPI (that excludes food and energy) rose 6.0% a year ago. If we take a more intrinsic look at headline inflation figures, this has largely been driven by Oil prices soaring by 48.7% which has impacted the prices of other areas such as Airline fares and Transportation which have risen 37.8% and 19.4% respectively. The acceleration of headline inflation keeps the pressure on the Federal Reserve who are set to meet over the next two days (14th – 15th June). Current rates in the US are at 1% with a further 0.50% rate rise expected to be announced this week.
Elsewhere, the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee is set to meet on Thursday and expected to raise interest rates by 0.25%, with UK CPI at 9.0% at the end of April 2022. Central banks continue to contend with several macroeconomic factors, including the effect of rate rises on the economy. The UK economy contracted by -0.3% month-over-month in April 2022. Ultimately, Central banks face a balancing act between how quickly existing rate rises can slow down inflation and not materially stall economic growth.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 13th June 2022.
© 2022 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - Jubilee celebrations, but will markets have anything to celebrate?
Written by Richard Warne.
Economic fine-tuning is difficult. Markets continue to hope that central bankers will weave a path in terms of controlling inflation, while not having to aggressively increase interest rates, thereby potentially leading to a steady glide path for economies. Of late, there have been many commentators shouting about hard landings and heightened recessionary fears. So far this year, these fears have dominated markets and returns for both equities and bonds have been challenging.
The prevailing question now seems to be “are we there yet”? Have we reached the other side of the market reset? As we sit today sentiment seems very negative, but have these recessionary fears been baked into markets? The Fed in the US has made it abundantly clear that curtailing inflation is their number one goal, but it appears that markets have moved on to absorb expectations for several further rate hikes. This is probably best highlighted by the fact that the yield on the 10-year US treasuries has settled below 3% for some time.
Eurozone inflation came into focus last week, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) prints being higher than was forecast. Germany’s year-on-year inflation was the highest with a 7.9% increase. The focus here is not on quantitative tightening, as Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, has already provided colour on this, but whether the first-rate hike will be 50bps. Futures markets are certainly starting to price in this possibility.
Looking ahead, much of this may become a sort of “waiting game” until we see the next meaningful event. The next CPI print in the US is only a week away, with the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) only a few days later. Potentially, a general lapse in headlines might allow for markets to settle into a more subdued pattern. For a data-dependent Fed that everyone has their eyes on, these economic data prints are more important than ever.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 6th June 2022.
© 2022 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - The Bottom of the Bear?
Written by Cormac Nevin.
After quite a challenging year to date for both equity and fixed income assets, last week saw a strong risk rally. The S&P 500 Index of US Equities led the charge and rallied +5.3% in GBP terms. Global, Continental European and UK Equities also had a good week, while the riskiest forms of fixed income such as high yield bonds also rallied. High-quality global bonds, as measured by the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index GBP Hedged, also rallied slightly last week.
This is interesting as it illustrates the continuations of a phenomenon that we have witnessed this year as the performance of equities and high-quality treasury bonds have started to move in the same direction as inflation, and higher interest rates prove to be a challenging environment for both. The MSCI All Country World Index of global equities is now down -6.4% for the year in GBP terms while the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index GBP Hedged is also down -7.3% for the year. Naïve allocations to treasuries and equities have formed the basis of traditional multi-asset investment over the last three decades, and a reversal of the negative correlation between the two variables could have interesting ramifications.
Many of our portfolio components such as specialist global value equities, Chinese government bonds and Absolute Return strategies have generated positive absolute returns this year as equity and fixed income markets fell. Once again this illustrates the importance of a diversified portfolio which goes beyond traditional stocks & bonds, particularly in the changing macroeconomic landscape we currently face.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 30th May 2022.
© 2022 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - Earnings Call
Written by Millan Chauhan.
Last week kick-started another earnings season in the US as companies disclose their financial performance over the last quarter. The big banks were the first set of companies to report and should provide insight into the strength of the economy. JP Morgan saw a 28% fall in net income as investment banking and IPO revenues dried up. Earnings expectations have been strong thus far despite having faced soaring inflation, restricted supply chains and dampening consumer sentiment surveys. However, there is a diminishing outlook for earnings upgrades as we have not seen reports on earnings be truly impacted by the challenging macroeconomic climate.
US inflation data saw a further increase as the Consumer Price Index reached 9.1% with gas prices up 11.2% during the month of June. Elsewhere, America’s five-year inflation expectations declined to 2.8%, its lowest level over the last year which has prompted the Federal Reserve to raise rates less aggressively with a 0.75% increase expected at the Fed’s meeting next week.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 18th July 2022.
© 2022 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.